1Sharareh Eskandarieh, 1Mohammad Ali Sahraian, 1Saeideh Ayoubi
1Multiple Sclerosis Research Center, Neuroscience Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Background:
The Middle-east and North Africa (MENA) region had a high prevalence of MS between 1970 and 2015 (1-2). Iran had the highest prevalence of MS among the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean region (72.11/100000) (3).
The prevalence of MS in Tehran was 79.3 cases per 100000 people in 2006 which increased to 162.38 (95% CI:160.27-164.52) cases per 100000 people in 2019 (4).
Objective(s):
To evaluate the development of MS in Tehran in 2020 and forecast the future condition of the disease for the next ten years.
Material(s) and Method(s):
A cross sectional study was designed to compare the latest prevalence of MS in Tehran. This study was based on data obtained from Iranian MS society (IMSS) registry system between 1999 and 2020.
Based on the results of population census that was performed in Iran in 2020 the population of Tehran was 13973000 of which 7016000 were male and 6957000 were female.
IMSS provided patients with a wide range of facilities and neurologists encouraged patients to enroll in IMSS to receive care and treatment services. Data about MS patients is carefully collected based on opinion of experts and the MS registration system (5). Before accepting the registry procedures by patients, the aims of IMSS registry were well explained to them by the interviewers.
The basic characteristics of patients, including the age of onset, age and sex of the subjects and history of familial MS were collected (4).
Patients were asked if they had people affected by MS among their relatives and asked about the degree of their relationship (first, second and third) to the person affected with MS.
For estimating the odds ratio for variables to assess factors associated with pediatric and familial MS recurrence rates, chi-square and logistic regression tests were used.
Result(s):
Results: A total of 23411 cases were registered at this study, including17577 (75.1%) females and 5834 (24.9%) males (female/male ratio = 3.016). The prevalence of MS in 2020 in Tehran was 167.54 cases per 100000 people including 252.65 per 100000 among females and 83.15 per 100000 among males.
Prevalence rate for MS in the total, familial and sporadic in 2029 and ends with 220.84(171.48-266.92), 30.79(24.16–37.15), and 189.33(146.97-230.19) in 2029.
Conclusion(s):
Tehran is one of the cities with the highest MS prevalence rate in Asia (1, 2).
MS prevalence in Tehran has increased compared to previous studies and will increase in early future.
MS is more common in women and young people (1). Having a family member with MS can increase the risk of pediatric MS. Risk of positive familial history was substantially higher among males (4).